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Tuesday, May 22, 2012

AUD going upwards from here

This economist is forecasting a fall in the $A below 0.90c. I cannot for the life of me see this happening in the context of the current market. I'm all for global cooling; but I don't see 'hell freezing over'. Basically the outlook for Australia is very good. Why?
1. The global economy is entering the 2nd stage of a super-cycle after debt levels ran up to historic highs.
2. The debt crisis will disappear and we will have a consumption spurge by these emerging markets, once confidence is restored. This will see debt levels balloon in those countries which have low debt levels. i.e. China, etc. So this will bring about a re-balancing
3. There will be drastic changes in the way Western business operates. They will be forced to move offshore, or drop their high-cost structures with head offices and outsource to households. High margin businesses and senior executives will stay in the office, others will go to cubicles in the suburbs, if not work from home. Why? Because there is a disparity in wage-productivity which will need to be closed, because the West will not be able to afford their welfare states. 
What will see the AUD hold this 98c level is:
1. The very positive outlook for its commodities
2. The very favourable exposure to iron ore, coal and oil & gas
3. The resource rent - it will mean more money stays in Australia; less dividend outflow; but it will be wastefully spent by government. Better waste or opportunity cost than dividends you might argue....assuming Gillard did us no harm on the sovereign risk ratings. Truth be told, she made it better because she showed that the developing world was worse than the West, i.e. She allowed them to drop their ball by lowering the bar on sovereign risk. Yes, blame Gillard for the global rise in taxation/expropriation - she sanctioned it first. She changed the trend. 
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

3 comments:

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