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Thursday, August 18, 2005

Aussie dollar - looking weaker

The Australian dollar is likely to fall off in the coming months as a softer Chinese and US economies tranlates into lower commodity prices. The highly indebted household sector will prevent the government from raising interest rates, though a weaker $A and tight labour markets suggests some upward move in interest rates will be required to quell inflation. There are already signs that retail sales and business confidence is weaker in the retail sector, so consumer spending should fall, but $A dominated mineral revenues will offer a sound buffer until inflation needs to be addressed. The 'staunchly independent' Reserve Bank (central bank) will have a chance to prove its meddle. We have already seen food prices moving up 7-15%, so that will eventually lead to wage pressures.

Strong commodity prices was recently the reason for a strong $A, but it appears to have been a speculative commodities play rather than reflecting real demand. Economic activity just was not that strong.

This set of affairs means that Australian gold stocks will out-perform.

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We're all getting ready for Christmas and there aren't many trading days left this year. Although I'm still trying to grapple with where the dollar's headed next year. My feeling is that it's going to be much the same as this - all over the place, but possibly on the ascendant over the year, mainly due the instability in the Eurozone.

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A merry Christmas to you and yours! Amon

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This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
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