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Author, Andrew Sheldon
Global Mining Investing is a reference eBook to teach investors how to think and act as investors with a underlying theme of managing risk. The book touches on a huge amount of content which heavily relies on knowledge that can only be obtained through experience...The text was engaging, as I knew the valuable outcome was to be a better thinker and investor.
While some books (such as Coulson’s An Insider’s Guide to the Mining Sector) focus on one particular commodity this book (Global Mining Investing) attempts (and does well) to cover all types of mining and commodities.
Global Mining Investing - see store
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Forex market attitudes to Australian PM candidates
Interestingly the Forex markets are signalling that Australia is confronting a bad choice of leaders - between two idiots to be sure. The NZD is surprisingly strong. I think the markets are anticipating a bad choice either way. Certainly there is no question that Gillard is dire news for the AUD in the short-medium term (say 0-5 years), whereas Abbot is the opposite I feel. Really its about the Gillard risk. The considerations are:
1. Resource Rent Tax - it will kill investment in the long term, but committed projects will continue. In the long term there will be balance of payments benefits in the Australian government receiving more money through extortion, but there will be a retained distaste in financial markets in the form of an interest rate risk premium for the extortion, and its surprise introduction.
2. Ideology - Gillard is a socialist who will invest long term in education. It will be inefficient spending, so considered a debasement of the currency value. Mind you? Any worse than Obama? The implication however is that wealth will unnecessarily be squandered.
3. Interest rates - I think both parties will have similar implications for interest rates - except for the Gillard 'tax premium' of say 0.25% x $750 billion of household debt for Australia. Basically they will have soft monetary policies because of the high housing debt, so they will let the exchange rate jump around with commodity prices and speculation about global economic growth.
4. Fiscal policy - Abbot could be expected to cut govt spending to repay debts.
Little surprise then that investors wanting AUD exposure are bidding up the NZD. Expect that disparity to correct after the election results.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com
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