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Sunday, August 22, 2010

USD set to strengthen against the Yen

These are indeed interesting times. We can see from the following chart that the USD is close to reaching its historic low of 81.86 against the Japanese Yen. It seems destined to reach this level in order to give traders some sense of upside. It is a fait compli that the USD is going to weaken. Why?
Well the Japanese economy is not exactly in a strong position either. We can expect some stimulus in Japan to come in the form of mass-printing of Yen. This will of course stimulate some domestic demand, and probably even stronger property prices. It will not contribute to the real economy, however it will allow the government to balance its fiscal debt, which is of course owed to the Japanese people.
At the moment the yen is at a support level of 84.94-85.00. I would expect this to be breached, and for the currency to plummet to the 81.86 level, if only for a day. The implication is that traders ought to be looking to take a trade position here. This also makes a great opportunity for Japanese people to buy a house in the USA foreclosed market given the weak USD. It is not a bad time to sell your property in Japan if you are repatriating USDs, but to what end when the yields are so much better in Japan. There is not going to be any huge recovery in USD in the short term, however there is sufficient upside to consider selling investments like property, i.e. A recovery is possible, and it could be as high as 125 Yen. The deciding issues are going to be:
1. Japanese budget balance - The extent to which the government resorts to taxation vs printing money to resolve the domestic public sector debt
2. Your time line - the longer you wait, the greater prospect of a US recovery. The US is still absorbing all their surplus property stock and liquidating the related debts.
Andrew Sheldon

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